{"id":1861,"date":"2021-12-03T22:35:55","date_gmt":"2021-12-03T19:35:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tasarrufdelileri.com\/?p=1861"},"modified":"2026-03-07T17:27:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T14:27:42","slug":"borsa-istanbul-rekoru-bir-yanilgi-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/?p=1861","title":{"rendered":"Borsa \u0130stanbul rekoru bir yan\u0131lg\u0131 m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Tasarruflar\u0131m\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirme s\u00fcrecimin en \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k a\u015famas\u0131yd\u0131. <\/p><\/amp-fit-text><\/p>\n\n\n\n

En uzun k\u0131s\u0131m bu oldu diyebilirim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6nceli\u011fi duygular\u0131ma vererek, hangi yat\u0131r\u0131ma uygun oldu\u011fumu tartmaya ve anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Okudu\u011fum kitaplar, izledi\u011fim videolar ve edindi\u011fim fikirlerle baz\u0131 konularda daha sa\u011flam bilgi setleri olu\u015fturdum kendime. Ya da en az\u0131ndan, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ‘ben’e g\u00f6re daha iyi seviyede bir yat\u0131r\u0131m anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 diyelim buna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son d\u00f6nemde \u00fclkemizde devam edegelen ‘eksi reel faiz’ ortam\u0131n\u0131n Borsa \u0130stanbul’a getirdi\u011fi karars\u0131zl\u0131k, TCMB’nin art\u0131k faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermesiyle son buldu ve zaten USD baz\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en ucuz borsalar\u0131ndan biri olan \u00fclkemiz borsas\u0131na c\u0131l\u0131z da olsa para giri\u015fi olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hisse senedi ile ilgili bilin\u00e7li okuma yapan herkes bilir, d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde ‘d\u00f6viz geliri’ bask\u0131n olan ya da bir di\u011fer deyi\u015fle ihracat\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan \u015firketlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece girilmesi muhtemeldir. En az\u0131ndan rakamlar b\u00f6yle s\u00f6yler. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn devam edece\u011fi ve eksi reel faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131n ‘o kadar da \u00f6nemli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131’ mesaj\u0131n\u0131n en \u00fcst kademeden veriliyor ve s\u0131kl\u0131kla dillendiriliyor olmas\u0131 borsam\u0131zdaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Piyasa belirsizli\u011fi sevmez derler, belirsizli\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131ran \u015fey ‘rasyonel olsun olmas\u0131n’ sadece sular\u0131n biraz da olsa berrakla\u015fmas\u0131, borsam\u0131za yetti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ben de t\u00fcm bu karma\u015fa ve toz duman i\u00e7inde, hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ma yak\u0131ndan bakmaya, fakat bu kez getirileri dolar baz\u0131nda tutman\u0131n do\u011fru olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir saptama yapabilmek i\u00e7in, bir \u00f6n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yapmaya karar verdim.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Bu yaz\u0131da sizlerle bunu payla\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k 530 g\u00fcne ula\u015fan bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten bahsedece\u011fim hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131mda. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zirve ve dip noktalar\u0131n\u0131n neresi oldu\u011funu, hangi ekonomik konjonkt\u00fcrden olumlu beslendi\u011fini, hangisinde dolara yenildi\u011fini anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye gibi enflasyon sorunu ya\u015fayan \u00fclkelerde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kl\u0131kla ‘serveti koruma’ amac\u0131yla alt\u0131n ve d\u00f6vize kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hatta ‘yast\u0131k alt\u0131’ olarak ifade edilen bireysel servetin, ekonomi y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen yeni anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 savunmak ad\u0131na bir teminat unsuru olarak referans al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ben de san\u0131r\u0131m ilk d\u00f6nem okumalar\u0131m\u0131n etkisi ve enflasyon deneyimini her d\u00f6nem ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f bir \u00fclkenin bireyi olarak, ‘serveti koruma’ ana temas\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 mutlak surette d\u00f6vizde de\u011ferlendirmeyi planlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Kafamda da \u00e7ok kaba bi\u00e7imde ‘en az\u0131ndan %30-35 gibi bir e\u015fik belirlemi\u015ftim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k 36 aya yay\u0131lan tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcrecimin ilk zamanlar\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z as\u0131l \u015fey, tasarrufu \u00f6ne alarak daha az harcamaya odaklanmak ve sorumlulu\u011fumuz alt\u0131ndaki bor\u00e7lar\u0131 ‘kazas\u0131z belas\u0131z’ bitirmekti. Varl\u0131k\/bor\u00e7 dengesi varl\u0131klardan yana a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131k\u00e7a, her ay elimizde biriken ‘art\u0131 de\u011ferin’ nas\u0131l en verimli \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirilece\u011fi sorusu, bu geli\u015fim s\u00fcrecinin en tatl\u0131 endi\u015fesi oldu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu noktada da ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta belirledi\u011fim ‘en az %30-35 d\u00f6viz’ motivasyonuyla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck d\u00f6viz al\u0131mlar\u0131 yaparak, ailemizin d\u00f6viz tevdiat hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n vadesizden vadeliye evrilmesini sa\u011flad\u0131k. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ‘vadeli mevduat a\u00e7\u0131lacak kadar bile b\u00fcy\u00fck olmayan’ bu birikimler, zamanla bu e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015ft\u0131, bize \u00e7ok az da olsa faiz getirisi de yaratmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ( Sonras\u0131nda mevduat\u0131n yerini eurobond ald\u0131 ki, bu ba\u015fka bir yaz\u0131n\u0131n konusu )<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayl\u0131k tasarruf planlamam\u0131 yaparken mutlaka ve mutlaka %30-35’lik k\u0131sm\u0131 d\u00fczenli olarak d\u00f6viz al\u0131m\u0131na ay\u0131rma disiplininden hi\u00e7 kopmad\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ancak as\u0131l odak noktam hisse senedi ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7teki \u00f6\u011frenme a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Mahfi E\u011filmez kitaplar\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Dr.Mahfi E\u011filmez kitaplar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 okudum. Warren Buffet’tan Benjamin Graham’a, Richard Thaler’den Robert T.Kiyosaki’ye kadar t\u00fcm yazarlar\u0131 okumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m ve yaz\u0131lan deneyim setlerinden rafine bir strateji \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n

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Kurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m basit stratejide ‘bile\u015fik getirinin g\u00fcc\u00fcnden’ faydalanacakt\u0131m hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131mda. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temel analize g\u00f6re finansal oranlar\u0131 sa\u011flam, faaliyet raporlar\u0131n\u0131 okuyabildi\u011finiz, kurumsal y\u00f6netimle y\u00f6netilen, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik raporu olan, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oyuncusu ve hakk\u0131nda bolca analist raporu yaz\u0131lan, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip edilen \u015firketlerden elde etmeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m sermaye kazanc\u0131yla; bu \u015firketlerin ya\u015fam d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde en ba\u015ftan belirleyip ilan ettikleri temett\u00fc politikalar\u0131 sayesinde elde edece\u011fim temett\u00fc gelirleri, benim portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn ana stratejilerini olu\u015fturuyordu. <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Risklerimi sekt\u00f6rel bazda da\u011f\u0131tmay\u0131, \u015firket ba\u015f\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m toplam riski, \u015firket say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 optimum bir noktaya kadar \u00e7\u0131kararak azaltmay\u0131 hedefledim. Bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 yazarken portf\u00f6y\u00fcmde 14 \u015firket bulunuyor. 100 birimlik bir risk setinde \u015firket ba\u015f\u0131na %7 gibi bir risk alm\u0131\u015f oldum. Elbette ki\u015fiseldir ve herkes i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 bir de\u011fer ifade etmesi \u00e7ok normal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zira yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015fi tamamen \u00f6znel bir i\u015f, herkes i\u00e7in belirlenmi\u015f ve herkese uyan net bir do\u011fru yok. Bu nedenle herkesin se\u00e7imine sayg\u0131 duyuyorum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se\u00e7ti\u011fim \u015firketlerin ana faaliyet d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde ve finansal de\u011ferlerinde bir anormallik yoksa ve bu rutini bozma potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yan olumsuz bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmediyse, hisse performans\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen ana unsurlar; asl\u0131nda benim hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131ndaki uzun vadeli bak\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ‘zedelemeyen’ unsurlar oluyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ben sadece elimdeki ‘sahiplik’ erkini artt\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum, basit ifadeyle ‘pay artt\u0131r\u0131yorum’<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 y\u0131la ula\u015fan bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te genel tavr\u0131m, gelirlerimizin i\u00e7inde belirledi\u011fimiz bir tutar\u0131 mutlaka ‘tasarruf havuzuna’ atmak ve plan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda belirlemi\u015f oldu\u011fum varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 do\u011frultusunda da\u011f\u0131tmaktan ibaretti. Hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131nda tecr\u00fcbe edilmi\u015f temel do\u011frular\u0131 da yan\u0131mdan ay\u0131rmamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tasarruflar\u0131 d\u00fczenli olarak yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirerek bu davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 ‘bir aile k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc’ haline getirebilmek ise, mental anlamda bizi en \u00e7ok ‘besleyen’ unsur oldu. D\u00f6rt ki\u015filik bir aileyiz ve evdeki her bireyin bir hisse senedi hesab\u0131 var. Hepsindeki se\u00e7imlere de ‘ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131’ \u00f6zen g\u00f6sterilmi\u015f oldu\u011funu san\u0131r\u0131m s\u00f6ylememe gerek yok. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hisse senedi birikimlerimizdeki dolar bazl\u0131 zirve noktas\u0131, Kas\u0131m 2020’de g\u00f6reve gelen Naci A\u011fbal’\u0131n, \u00fclke ekonomisi ve piyasa payda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda kucaklayarak anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r ekonomi politikalar\u0131yla TL’yi de\u011ferli k\u0131lmaya odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir TCMB-Piyasa ileti\u015fimi ve \u00fclkeye giren yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle, d\u00f6viz kurunu dizginledi\u011fi d\u00f6nem oldu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

San\u0131r\u0131m bu bir tesad\u00fcf de\u011fil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olan da bu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Borsada devam eden \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131n ralli endekste bizi 1900 puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na, ki\u015fisel olarak ise Borsa \u0130stanbul endeksini bu co\u015fku d\u00f6neminde bile yenmi\u015f bir portf\u00f6ye sahip olmama ra\u011fmen ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m yer, TL’ nin de\u011ferini artt\u0131rmaya odakl\u0131 rasyonel ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcd\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nem zirvesinin \u00fczerinde de\u011fil, alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcm bu toz duman i\u00e7inde, neredeyse 6 ay %25-30 K\/Z seviyelerinde gezen portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn \u015fu an%80 seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00fclkemizin paras\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer paralar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesi nedeniyle bir anlam ifade etmiyor. Elbette \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m ders \u015fudur:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olu\u015fu, bizleri ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fma konusunda daha \u015fansl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak \u015funu da biliyorum. Tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m, t\u0131pk\u0131 hayat\u0131n ‘ta kendisi’ gibi, \u00f6\u011frenme s\u00fcrecinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131. Tasarruf s\u00fcrecindeki ‘\u00f6zne’ ve onun ki\u015filik \u00f6zellikleriyle uyumlanan, okuma ve yetkin insanlar\u0131 izleme s\u00fcreciyle beslenip g\u00fcncellenen ve taze kalan bir yat\u0131r\u0131m plan\u0131; duygu y\u00f6netimini de iyi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bizi ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En az\u0131ndan ben b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonominin, t\u00fcm payda\u015flar\u0131 kucaklayan, anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir dinamiklerden olu\u015fumunun ne kadar \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir piyasa ortam\u0131nda yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131m pozitif de\u011fere nas\u0131l \u00f6nemli bir etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcm. Evet fark\u0131nday\u0131m, bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 Borsa \u0130stanbul endeksinin TL bazl\u0131 tarihi rekorunu k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn yaz\u0131yorum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toplumun t\u00fcm payda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kucaklayan bir piyasa ortam\u0131na \u00e7ok ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var. De\u011fi\u015ftiremeyece\u011fimiz \u015feyler i\u00e7in endi\u015felenmek yerine, etki edebilece\u011fimiz ve geli\u015ftirebilece\u011fimiz ‘yegane’ de\u011fere odaklanmak gerekiyor belki de: kendimize…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sa\u011fl\u0131kla kal\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tasarruflar\u0131m\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirme s\u00fcrecimin en \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k a\u015famas\u0131yd\u0131. En uzun k\u0131s\u0131m bu oldu diyebilirim. \u00d6nceli\u011fi duygular\u0131ma vererek, hangi yat\u0131r\u0131ma uygun oldu\u011fumu tartmaya ve anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Okudu\u011fum kitaplar, izledi\u011fim videolar…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1861"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1861\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4129,"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1861\/revisions\/4129"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fonanalizi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}